PITSteelers
0-4
19
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
10 mph
6
NYJJets
3-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
9
7
3
19
Jets
3
3
0
0
6
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
267
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
5.4
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.20
Passing Yards
255
184
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.37
Rushing Yards
73
83
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.71
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-24
-17
Sack EPA
-5.75
-3.84
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
49
60
Penalty EPA
-5.65
-5.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model48.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
-2.7
Final Difference
13.8
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
19
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
9
25
EPA / Rush
29
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
6
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
17
32
Turnover EPA / Game
16
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
10
RZ Efficiency
20
4
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
25
13
Passing Yards / Game
32
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
21
EPA
EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
30
10
EPA / Rush
18
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
26
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U