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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ jets week 6, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
0-4
19
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
10 mph
6
NYJJets
3-2
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
9
7
3
19
Jets
3
3
0
0
6

Spread

PIT logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
328
267
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
5.4
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.20
Passing Yards
255
184
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.37
Rushing Yards
73
83
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.71
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-24
-17
Sack EPA
-5.75
-3.84
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
49
60
Penalty EPA
-5.65
-5.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model47.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
-2.6
Final Difference
16.0
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
11/04
-2.0
35
11/12
-2.8
31
12/09
2.4
64
12/16
0.1
51
12/23
-6.6
11
12/30
0.3
51
09/08
-5.5
17
09/16
-1.6
42
09/22
2.6
68
09/29
0.9
56
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.0
39
09/12
-12.1
2
09/22
4.7
83
09/29
-3.8
26
10/07
2.0
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Steelers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
16
19
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2

EPA

EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
9
25
EPA / Rush
29
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
6
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
17
32
Turnover EPA / Game
16
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
10
RZ Efficiency
20
4
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jets logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
25
13
Passing Yards / Game
32
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
21

EPA

EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
30
10
EPA / Rush
18
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
26
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-6
L
L
O
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
-10
L
L
O
12/16
-3
L
L
O
12/23
-3
L
L
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/16
-10
L
L
U
09/22
-17
L
L
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
1
W
L
U
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/17
-4
L
L
U
12/23
-10
L
L
O
12/30
-19
L
L
U
09/08
1
W
W
U
09/12
-3
L
W
U
09/22
7
W
W
O
09/29
-25
L
L
O
10/07
2
W
W
O