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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ jets week 16, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
8-6
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
6 mph
16
NYJJets
5-9
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
0
0
10
Jets
7
3
3
3
16

Spread

NYJ logo
+3

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
260
259
Total Plays
66
60
Yards / Play
3.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.09
Passing Yards
185
174
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.20
Rushing Yards
75
85
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
21%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.13
-3.36
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-28
-9
Sack EPA
-5.73
-4.63
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
34
30
Penalty EPA
-5.58
-2.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,330
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+62.6
Base HFA
+46.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+138.0
Home QB Adjustment
+30.4
Away QB Adjustment
-107.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Hodges headshot

D. Hodges

Proj. Value
-6.0
Team Elo Adj
-107.5
Value
Ptile
10/13
-1.8
39
12/01
-2.1
37
12/08
-2.8
33
12/15
-9.3
5
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+30.4
Value
Ptile
10/13
2.7
70
10/21
-14.9
0
10/27
-10.3
4
11/03
-3.2
30
11/10
2.2
68
11/17
2.7
70
11/24
7.7
92
12/01
-6.4
14
12/08
-2.0
38
12/12
1.1
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Steelers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2

EPA

EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
32
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
32
13
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jets logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14

EPA

EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
31
4
EPA / Rush
31
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
23
2
Fumbles / Game
18
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
21
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
10/28
13
W
L
U
11/03
2
W
W
O
11/10
5
W
W
U
11/14
-14
L
L
U
11/24
6
W
W
U
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
W
U
12/15
-7
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
2
W
W
O
10/21
-33
L
L
U
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/03
-8
L
L
O
11/10
7
W
W
O
11/17
17
W
W
O
11/24
31
W
W
U
12/01
-16
L
L
U
12/08
1
W
L
U
12/12
-21
L
L
O