PITSteelers
8-6
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
6 mph
16
NYJJets
5-9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
0
0
10
Jets
7
3
3
3
16
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
259
Total Plays
66
60
Yards / Play
3.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.09
Passing Yards
185
174
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.20
Rushing Yards
75
85
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
21%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.13
-3.36
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-28
-9
Sack EPA
-5.73
-4.63
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
34
30
Penalty EPA
-5.58
-2.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,330
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+62.6
Base HFA
+46.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+138.0
Home QB Adjustment
+30.4
Away QB Adjustment
-107.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Hodges
Proj. Value
-6.0
Team Elo Adj
-107.5
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+30.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2
EPA
EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
32
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
32
13
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14
EPA
EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
31
4
EPA / Rush
31
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
23
2
Fumbles / Game
18
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
21
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U