PITSteelers
5-2
20
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
015
DETLions
3-3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
7
10
0
20
Lions
3
9
0
3
15
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
392
482
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
6.5
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
411
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
27/45(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.03
Rushing Yards
75
71
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.54
-2.63
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-6.30
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
37
57
Penalty EPA
-4.28
-6.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+92.6
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.5
Home QB Adjustment
-18.3
Away QB Adjustment
-8.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
21
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
5
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19
EPA
EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
6
11
EPA / Rush
19
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
7
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
21
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Lions Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
11
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
13
EPA
EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
32
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
28
Interceptions / Game
10
11
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
9
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
14
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U