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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ packers week 16, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PIT logo
PITSteelers
6-8
38
TBD
Lambeau Field
23°F
13 mph
31
GBPackers
7-6
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
23°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
3
15
7
32
Packers
7
7
7
10
31

Spread

PIT logo
-1

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
343
370
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
5.8
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.04
Passing Yards
192
219
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
21/39(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.22
Rushing Yards
151
151
Rush Attempts
29
30
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
20%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
6
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.56
-12.69
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-13
Sack EPA
-1.93
-3.77
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
58
90
Penalty EPA
-13.71
-16.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-135.9
Home QB Adjustment
-114.9
Away QB Adjustment
+21.1
Market Regression
-51.8
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.1
Value
Ptile
10/13
3.2
72
10/20
0.5
54
10/27
-5.6
17
11/03
2.0
63
11/10
-4.6
21
11/17
9.5
95
11/24
3.5
74
11/28
6.7
89
12/08
6.3
87
12/15
0.9
56
M. Flynn headshot

M. Flynn

Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-114.9
Value
Ptile
12/19
0.2
50
01/01
13.3
99
09/29
-7.6
9
11/28
-13.1
1
12/08
-2.2
38
12/15
2.9
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Steelers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25

EPA

EPA / Play
18
28
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
29
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
8
Interceptions / Game
13
26
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
20
18
Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Packers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
13
Yards / Game
4
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21

EPA

EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
4
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
14
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
8
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
25
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
13
W
W
U
10/20
3
W
W
U
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-24
L
L
O
11/10
13
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
O
11/24
16
W
W
U
11/28
-2
L
W
O
12/08
-6
L
L
O
12/15
10
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
2
W
W
U
10/20
18
W
W
U
10/27
13
W
W
O
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/10
-14
L
L
U
11/17
-14
L
L
U
11/24
0
T
L
O
11/28
-30
L
L
O
12/08
1
W
L
U
12/15
1
W
W
O