PITSteelers
6-8
38
TBD
Lambeau Field
23°F
13 mph
31
GBPackers
7-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
23°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
3
15
7
32
Packers
7
7
7
10
31
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
343
370
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
5.8
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.04
Passing Yards
192
219
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
21/39(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.22
Rushing Yards
151
151
Rush Attempts
29
30
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
20%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.56
-12.69
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-13
Sack EPA
-1.93
-3.77
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
58
90
Penalty EPA
-13.71
-16.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-135.9
Home QB Adjustment
-114.9
Away QB Adjustment
+21.1
Market Regression
-52.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.1
M. Flynn
Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-114.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25
EPA
EPA / Play
18
28
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
29
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
8
Interceptions / Game
13
26
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
20
18
Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
13
Yards / Game
4
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21
EPA
EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
4
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
14
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
8
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
25
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U