PITSteelers
14-4
25
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
031
GBPackers
13-6
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
7
8
25
Packers
8
7
0
10
25
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
338
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
6.0
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.08
Passing Yards
261
288
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.25
Rushing Yards
128
50
Rush Attempts
24
13
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
54%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.85
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-16
Sack EPA
-0.85
-4.47
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
--
67
Penalty EPA
--
+1.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,673
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+11.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.1
Away QB Adjustment
+32.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+32.0
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
14
Rushing Yards / Game
11
12
EPA
EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
10
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
18
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
15
14
Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
7
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1
EPA
EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
11
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
8
Interceptions / Game
7
10
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
4
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U