PITSteelers
-
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
7 mph
28
NEPatriots
-
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
8
10
21
Patriots
0
14
7
7
28
Spread
7
P
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
466
361
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
7.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.29
Passing Yards
332
281
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.50
Rushing Yards
134
80
Rush Attempts
25
24
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
15
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.80
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-21
-7
Sack EPA
-3.86
-3.88
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
77
64
Penalty EPA
-7.33
-4.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
+46.1
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
8
Yards / Game
3
8
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
10
EPA
EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
7
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
29
24
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
16
4th Down Efficiency
29
12
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
9
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
4
13
EPA / Rush
6
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
18
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
2
2
Turnover EPA / Game
31
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
4
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U