PITSteelers
-
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
66°F
2 mph
33
NEPatriots
-
TBD
Gillette Stadium
66°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
3
0
3
Patriots
7
13
10
3
33
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
287
465
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
4.8
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.24
Passing Yards
255
366
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.51
Rushing Yards
32
99
Rush Attempts
13
29
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.54
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
-0.15
-1.73
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
54
55
Penalty EPA
-5.72
-6.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+57.9
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
+4.3
Final Difference
135.2
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
1
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
8
EPA
EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
32
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
32
6
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
5
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14
EPA
EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
14
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
24
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
18
RZ Efficiency
26
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U