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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ patriots week 1, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
-
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
66°F
2 mph
33
NEPatriots
-
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
66°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
3
0
3
Patriots
7
13
10
3
33

Spread

NE logo
-6

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
287
465
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
4.8
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.24
Passing Yards
255
366
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.51
Rushing Yards
32
99
Rush Attempts
13
29
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.54
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
-0.15
-1.73
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
54
55
Penalty EPA
-5.72
-6.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+58.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
10/28
2.0
62
11/04
5.6
83
11/08
13.9
99
11/18
-1.1
39
11/25
6.8
88
12/02
3.0
70
12/09
5.6
84
12/16
-3.1
27
12/23
7.0
90
12/30
0.8
52
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Value
Ptile
11/11
-4.7
20
11/25
4.6
78
12/02
4.9
79
12/09
5.5
83
12/16
1.5
57
12/23
-6.0
13
12/30
6.4
87
01/13
8.3
92
01/20
1.6
58
02/03
-2.7
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Steelers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
27
1
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
8

EPA

EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
32
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
32
6
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Patriots logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
5
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14

EPA

EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
15
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
24
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
18
RZ Efficiency
26
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
15
W
W
O
11/04
7
W
W
U
11/08
31
W
W
O
11/18
4
W
P
U
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/16
7
W
W
U
12/23
-3
L
W
O
12/30
3
W
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-24
L
L
U
11/25
14
W
W
U
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-1
L
L
O
12/16
-7
L
L
U
12/23
12
W
L
U
12/30
35
W
W
U
01/13
13
W
W
O
01/20
6
W
W
O
02/03
10
W
W
U