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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ raiders week 3, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PIT logo
PITSteelers
1-1
23
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
18
OAKRaiders
1-1
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
6
10
0
23
Raiders
7
0
0
11
18

Spread

PIT logo
+3

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
333
364
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
5.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.11
Passing Yards
228
295
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.16
Rushing Yards
105
69
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.52
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-31
Sack EPA
-2.42
-6.34
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
45
60
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-6.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+66.7
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.3
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-15.5
Market Regression
+50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.5
Value
Ptile
11/13
-1.8
39
11/20
1.8
67
11/28
-2.0
38
12/04
-1.6
42
12/11
-7.0
9
12/24
-0.2
50
01/01
-3.4
26
01/08
-1.7
40
09/10
-5.4
17
09/18
-4.3
23
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Value
Ptile
10/09
0.8
58
10/16
1.7
65
10/23
-3.2
27
10/30
3.9
80
11/13
1.7
65
11/21
5.8
88
11/27
2.3
71
12/04
-7.0
9
09/10
2.3
65
09/17
-1.9
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Steelers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20

EPA

EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
20
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
20
Interceptions / Game
5
17
Fumbles / Game
8
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
25
27
Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Raiders logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
21

EPA

EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
26
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
11
RZ Efficiency
24
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-7
L
L
O
11/28
7
W
W
O
12/04
3
W
W
U
12/11
-2
L
L
U
12/18
8
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
3
W
W
U
01/08
14
W
W
O
09/10
-23
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
6
W
W
U
11/27
6
W
W
O
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/08
-1
L
L
U
12/18
6
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-3
L
W
O
01/07
-18
L
L
U
09/10
1
W
W
U
09/17
-28
L
L
O