PITSteelers
1-1
23
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
018
OAKRaiders
1-1
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
6
10
0
23
Raiders
7
0
0
11
18
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
364
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
5.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.11
Passing Yards
228
295
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.16
Rushing Yards
105
69
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.52
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-31
Sack EPA
-2.42
-6.34
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
45
60
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-6.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.1
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-15.6
Market Regression
+51.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-15.6
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
20
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
20
Interceptions / Game
5
17
Fumbles / Game
8
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
25
27
Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
21
EPA
EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
26
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
11
RZ Efficiency
24
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U