PITSteelers
-
7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
75°F
2 mph
35
BALRavens
-
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
75°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
7
0
0
7
Ravens
14
7
11
3
35
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
387
Total Plays
61
62
Yards / Play
5.1
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.14
Passing Yards
246
215
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.36
Rushing Yards
66
172
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
7
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-32.39
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-34
-9
Sack EPA
-11.06
-1.90
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
53
75
Penalty EPA
-6.69
-6.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,642
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
11
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
7
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
16
Interceptions / Game
18
12
Fumbles / Game
26
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
15
1
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8
EPA
EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
18
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
8
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
17
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U