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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ ravens week 1, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
-
7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
75°F
2 mph
35
BALRavens
-
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
75°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
7
0
0
7
Ravens
14
7
11
3
35

Spread

BAL logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
37

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
312
387
Total Plays
61
62
Yards / Play
5.1
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.14
Passing Yards
246
215
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.36
Rushing Yards
66
172
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
7
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-32.39
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-34
-9
Sack EPA
-11.06
-1.90
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
53
75
Penalty EPA
-6.69
-6.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+17
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,641
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
11/21
11.8
99
11/28
-2.7
31
12/05
-2.0
36
12/12
-0.4
46
12/19
1.1
55
12/23
5.1
83
01/02
7.7
93
01/15
-1.6
40
01/23
-5.1
17
02/06
4.3
77
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Value
Ptile
11/11
2.0
61
11/21
3.4
72
11/28
1.6
58
12/05
-0.9
43
12/13
-1.5
40
12/19
-1.4
41
12/26
-1.0
43
01/02
-7.1
10
01/09
4.9
82
01/15
-7.3
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
11
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
3

EPA

EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
7
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
16
Interceptions / Game
18
12
Fumbles / Game
26
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
15
1
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8

EPA

EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
18
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
8
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
17
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
32
W
W
U
11/28
3
W
L
U
12/05
3
W
W
U
12/12
16
W
W
U
12/19
-5
L
L
O
12/23
24
W
W
U
01/02
32
W
W
O
01/15
7
W
W
O
01/23
5
W
W
O
02/06
-6
L
L
O
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-5
L
L
O
11/21
24
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
L
U
12/05
-3
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
O
12/19
6
W
W
O
12/26
10
W
W
U
01/02
6
W
L
U
01/09
23
W
W
U
01/15
-7
L
L
O