PITSteelers
4-3
14
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
15 mph
21
BALRavens
3-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
0
14
14
Ravens
7
3
3
2
15
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
277
276
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
4.3
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.18
Passing Yards
241
226
Comp/Att
23/45(51%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.18
Rushing Yards
36
50
Rush Attempts
18
29
Yards / Rush
2.0
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
13
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
24%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.24
-4.08
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-26
Sack EPA
-3.54
-6.35
Penalties
14
10
Penalty Yards
99
94
Penalty EPA
-13.31
-9.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model63.2%
Spread Pick
Steelers-3.0
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-136
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+3.3
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-94.2
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
6
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5
EPA
EPA / Play
6
6
EPA / Pass
7
11
EPA / Rush
3
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
19
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
16
23
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
19
18
EPA / Pass
26
15
EPA / Rush
15
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
19
RZ Efficiency
19
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Ravens
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U