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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ ravens week 13, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
6-5
23
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
9 mph
20
BALRavens
9-2
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
3
7
10
23
Ravens
0
13
7
0
20

Spread

PIT logo
+7

Total

OVER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
366
288
Total Plays
65
58
Yards / Play
5.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.02
Passing Yards
270
177
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
16/34(47%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.29
Rushing Yards
96
111
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.70
-7.73
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-6
-11
Sack EPA
-2.87
-6.35
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
50
70
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-7.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+72.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-69.4
Market Regression
-53.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

C. Batch headshot

C. Batch

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-69.4
Value
Ptile
11/22
-5.2
17
12/02
0.2
53
11/06
-6.4
11
11/13
3.7
76
09/07
3.6
75
12/30
-0.9
42
09/26
3.6
73
10/03
-4.3
21
12/24
-0.1
51
11/25
-7.1
9
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Value
Ptile
09/16
-2.0
36
09/23
9.4
95
09/27
1.9
62
10/07
-7.5
8
10/14
1.6
60
10/21
-9.1
4
11/04
-1.0
42
11/11
8.0
92
11/18
-1.8
38
11/25
-1.5
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22

EPA

EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
29
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
13
RZ Efficiency
12
1
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2

EPA

EPA / Play
10
7
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
17
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
13
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
12
16
Turnover EPA / Game
27
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
4
4th Down Efficiency
26
29
RZ Efficiency
6
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
17
W
W
U
09/23
-3
L
L
O
10/07
2
W
L
U
10/11
-3
L
L
O
10/21
7
W
W
U
10/28
15
W
W
U
11/04
4
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/18
-3
L
P
U
11/25
-6
L
L
O
BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-1
L
W
O
09/23
1
W
L
O
09/27
7
W
L
U
10/07
3
W
L
U
10/14
2
W
L
O
10/21
-30
L
L
O
11/04
10
W
W
U
11/11
35
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
U
11/25
3
W
W
U