PITSteelers
6-5
23
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
9 mph
20
BALRavens
9-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
3
7
10
23
Ravens
0
13
7
0
20
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
288
Total Plays
65
58
Yards / Play
5.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.02
Passing Yards
270
177
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
16/34(47%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.29
Rushing Yards
96
111
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.70
-7.73
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-6
-11
Sack EPA
-2.87
-6.35
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
50
70
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-7.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+72.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-69.4
Market Regression
-51.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Batch
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-69.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
29
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
13
RZ Efficiency
12
1
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
7
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
17
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
13
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
12
16
Turnover EPA / Game
27
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
4
4th Down Efficiency
26
29
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U