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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ ravens week 13, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
5-6
20
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
37°F
2 mph
22
BALRavens
5-6
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
37°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
7
13
20
Ravens
7
3
6
6
22

Spread

PIT logo
+3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
329
311
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
5.2
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.21
Passing Yards
--
237
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.21
Rushing Yards
72
74
Rush Attempts
18
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
54%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
7
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.12
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
51
55
Penalty EPA
-6.37
-6.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.2
Home QB Adjustment
-22.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
+39.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Value
Ptile
09/16
-1.6
42
09/22
2.6
68
09/29
0.9
56
10/13
3.2
72
10/20
0.5
54
10/27
-5.6
17
11/03
2.0
63
11/10
-4.6
21
11/17
9.5
95
11/24
3.5
74
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.0
Value
Ptile
09/15
0.4
52
09/22
-1.9
39
09/29
-9.3
4
10/06
-2.2
37
10/13
0.8
56
10/20
3.9
76
11/03
-2.1
38
11/10
-8.0
8
11/17
-6.7
12
11/24
-2.5
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10

EPA

EPA / Play
18
10
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
29
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
4
Interceptions / Game
13
14
Fumbles / Game
17
29
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
9
23
RZ Efficiency
20
8
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
21

EPA

EPA / Play
23
13
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
31
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
31
29
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
23
17
RZ Efficiency
31
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-10
L
L
U
09/22
-17
L
L
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/13
13
W
W
U
10/20
3
W
W
U
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-24
L
L
O
11/10
13
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
O
11/24
16
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
8
W
W
U
09/22
21
W
W
U
09/29
-3
L
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/13
-2
L
L
U
10/20
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/17
-3
L
W
O
11/24
16
W
W
U