PITSteelers
5-6
20
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
37°F
2 mph
22
BALRavens
5-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
37°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
7
13
20
Ravens
7
3
6
6
22
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
329
311
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
5.2
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.21
Passing Yards
--
237
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.21
Rushing Yards
72
74
Rush Attempts
18
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
54%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
7
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.12
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
51
55
Penalty EPA
-6.37
-6.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.2
Home QB Adjustment
-22.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
+39.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-22.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
18
10
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
29
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
4
Interceptions / Game
13
14
Fumbles / Game
17
29
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
9
23
RZ Efficiency
20
8
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
21
EPA
EPA / Play
23
13
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
31
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
31
29
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
23
17
RZ Efficiency
31
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U