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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ ravens week 16, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
10-4
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
35°F
15 mph
34
BALRavens
9-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
35°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
7
0
17
Ravens
7
10
7
4
28

Spread

BAL logo
-7

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
315
418
Total Plays
60
62
Yards / Play
5.3
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.21
Passing Yards
198
198
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.31
Rushing Yards
117
220
Rush Attempts
24
38
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.18
-6.52
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-19
-9
Sack EPA
-3.99
-2.27
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
29
--
Penalty EPA
-5.39
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,668
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.5
Home QB Adjustment
+43.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.2
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Value
Ptile
12/16
-1.4
40
12/24
1.3
58
10/20
5.4
81
10/28
-0.0
49
11/10
-4.2
21
11/17
-6.7
9
11/21
1.8
61
12/01
7.2
91
12/08
1.1
56
12/15
-2.5
31
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+43.7
Value
Ptile
10/06
10.7
97
10/13
2.3
65
10/21
10.1
97
10/27
4.7
78
11/03
6.9
89
11/07
10.8
98
11/17
-1.3
39
11/25
3.7
73
12/01
5.9
83
12/15
13.4
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
20
8
Yards / Game
23
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1

EPA

EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
28
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
3
21
Fumbles / Game
31
29
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11

EPA

EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
1
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
8
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
1
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/13
19
W
W
O
10/20
22
W
W
O
10/28
8
W
W
O
11/10
1
W
W
O
11/17
2
W
W
U
11/21
-5
L
L
O
12/01
6
W
W
O
12/08
13
W
W
U
12/15
-14
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
O
10/21
10
W
W
O
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/03
31
W
W
O
11/07
1
W
L
O
11/17
-2
L
L
U
11/25
7
W
W
O
12/01
-5
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O