PITSteelers
10-4
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
35°F
15 mph
34
BALRavens
9-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
35°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
7
0
17
Ravens
7
10
7
4
28
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
418
Total Plays
60
62
Yards / Play
5.3
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.21
Passing Yards
198
198
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.31
Rushing Yards
117
220
Rush Attempts
24
38
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.18
-6.52
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-19
-9
Sack EPA
-3.99
-2.27
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
29
--
Penalty EPA
-5.39
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,669
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+21.8
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.7
Home QB Adjustment
+43.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+43.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
8
Yards / Game
23
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
28
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
3
21
Fumbles / Game
31
29
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
8
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
1
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U