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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ ravens week 18, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
8-7
16
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
36°F
0
13
BALRavens
8-8
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
36°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
3
0
3
7
3
16
Ravens
0
3
7
3
0
13

Spread

PIT logo
+3

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
314
381
Total Plays
75
71
Yards / Play
4.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.23
Passing Yards
235
132
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.55
Rushing Yards
79
249
Rush Attempts
30
36
Yards / Rush
2.6
6.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
14
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
35%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.52
-13.92
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-9
Sack EPA
-1.89
-3.13
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-4.83
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model56.4%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-109.2
Home QB Adjustment
-137.1
Away QB Adjustment
-27.9
Market Regression
-20.0
Final Difference
44.4
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-27.9
Value
Ptile
10/17
1.3
62
10/31
-0.4
49
11/08
-1.7
40
11/21
2.9
75
11/28
-6.3
13
12/05
3.0
76
12/09
0.9
60
12/19
-4.4
22
12/26
-4.8
21
01/03
-7.6
9
T. Huntley headshot

T. Huntley

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-137.1
Value
Ptile
11/21
-5.1
19
12/19
11.5
98
01/02
-3.7
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2

EPA

EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
26
30
EPA / Rush
19
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
3
Interceptions / Game
6
27
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
22
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
14
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32

EPA

EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
8
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
13
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-4-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
5
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/14
0
T
L
U
11/21
-4
L
W
O
11/28
-31
L
L
O
12/05
1
W
W
U
12/09
-8
L
L
O
12/19
6
W
W
U
12/26
-26
L
L
O
01/03
12
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-24
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/11
-12
L
L
U
11/21
3
W
L
U
11/28
6
W
W
U
12/05
-1
L
L
U
12/12
-2
L
W
O
12/19
-1
L
W
O
12/26
-20
L
L
O
01/02
-1
L
W
U