PITSteelers
8-7
16
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
36°F
013
BALRavens
8-8
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
36°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
3
0
3
7
3
16
Ravens
0
3
7
3
0
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
381
Total Plays
75
71
Yards / Play
4.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.23
Passing Yards
235
132
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.55
Rushing Yards
79
249
Rush Attempts
30
36
Yards / Rush
2.6
6.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
14
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
35%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.52
-13.92
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-9
Sack EPA
-1.89
-3.13
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-4.83
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model57.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-109.2
Home QB Adjustment
-137.1
Away QB Adjustment
-27.9
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
54.6
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-27.9
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-137.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
26
30
EPA / Rush
19
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
3
Interceptions / Game
6
27
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
22
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
14
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32
EPA
EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
8
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-4-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U