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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ ravens week 19, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
10-7
14
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
32°F
12 mph
28
BALRavens
12-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
32°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
14
0
14
Ravens
7
14
7
0
28

Spread

BAL logo
-9.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
280
464
Total Plays
45
72
Yards / Play
6.2
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.25
Passing Yards
251
165
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
16/21(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.45
Rushing Yards
29
299
Rush Attempts
11
50
Yards / Rush
2.6
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
11
29
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
16
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
45%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-19
-10
Sack EPA
-4.98
-1.78
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
41
--
Penalty EPA
-7.64
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model82.2%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+15.2%
Cover Probability
60.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+302
Home nfelo
1,737
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.5
Home QB Adjustment
+42.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
-1.7
Final Difference
265.6
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
10/28
-0.0
49
11/10
-4.2
21
11/17
-6.7
9
11/21
1.8
61
12/01
7.2
91
12/08
1.1
56
12/15
-2.5
31
12/21
1.6
60
12/25
-1.9
35
01/04
-4.5
19
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+42.6
Value
Ptile
10/27
4.7
78
11/03
6.9
89
11/07
10.8
98
11/17
-1.3
39
11/25
3.7
73
12/01
5.9
83
12/15
13.4
99
12/21
3.3
72
12/25
9.8
96
01/04
5.8
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
20
8
Yards / Game
23
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1

EPA

EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
28
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
3
21
Fumbles / Game
31
29
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11

EPA

EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
1
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
8
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
1
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
8
W
W
O
11/10
1
W
W
O
11/17
2
W
W
U
11/21
-5
L
L
O
12/01
6
W
W
O
12/08
13
W
W
U
12/15
-14
L
L
U
12/21
-17
L
L
O
12/25
-19
L
L
U
01/04
-2
L
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/03
31
W
W
O
11/07
1
W
L
O
11/17
-2
L
L
U
11/25
7
W
W
O
12/01
-5
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
17
W
W
O
12/25
29
W
W
U
01/04
25
W
W
O