PITSteelers
10-7
14
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
32°F
12 mph
28
BALRavens
12-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
32°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
14
0
14
Ravens
7
14
7
0
28
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
464
Total Plays
45
72
Yards / Play
6.2
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.25
Passing Yards
251
165
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
16/21(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.45
Rushing Yards
29
299
Rush Attempts
11
50
Yards / Rush
2.6
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
29
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
16
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
45%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-19
-10
Sack EPA
-4.98
-1.78
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
41
--
Penalty EPA
-7.64
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model81.9%
Spread Pick
Ravens-9.5
Expected Value
+13.4%
Cover Probability
59.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+295
Home nfelo
1,736
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.6
Home QB Adjustment
+42.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
-2.0
Final Difference
262.0
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+42.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
8
Yards / Game
23
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
28
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
3
21
Fumbles / Game
31
29
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
8
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
1
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U