PITSteelers
5-1
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
020
NOSaints
4-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
0
7
10
Saints
0
3
3
14
20
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
318
Total Plays
52
67
Yards / Play
5.4
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.06
Passing Yards
171
288
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
34/44(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.15
Rushing Yards
108
30
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
5.1
1.4
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.49
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
30%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.58
-7.45
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-17
Sack EPA
-4.10
-5.93
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
38
--
Penalty EPA
-5.00
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-68.1
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+67.5
Market Regression
+22.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+67.5
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
14
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
11
18
EPA
EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
10
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
30
Interceptions / Game
6
32
Fumbles / Game
18
6
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
28
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Saints Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
2
Yards / Game
5
2
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
8
2
EPA / Pass
6
4
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
8
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
19
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U