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  1. nfelo...
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  3. steelers @ saints week 8, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
5-1
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
20
NOSaints
4-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
0
7
10
Saints
0
3
3
14
20

Spread

NO logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
279
318
Total Plays
52
67
Yards / Play
5.4
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.06
Passing Yards
171
288
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
34/44(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.15
Rushing Yards
108
30
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
5.1
1.4
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.49
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
30%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.58
-7.45
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-17
Sack EPA
-4.10
-5.93
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
38
--
Penalty EPA
-5.00
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-68.1
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+67.5
Market Regression
+22.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+67.5
Value
Ptile
11/09
2.5
66
11/15
-7.3
9
11/22
7.0
89
12/06
4.7
80
12/10
-8.8
5
12/20
10.1
96
12/27
-3.6
27
01/03
3.9
75
10/17
4.3
77
10/24
3.8
75
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
01/16
7.4
90
01/24
3.0
69
02/07
8.6
94
09/09
3.5
72
09/20
5.7
86
09/26
7.2
91
10/03
4.1
76
10/10
-1.3
42
10/17
5.9
87
10/24
-2.0
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Saints Defense
Steelers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
14
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
11
18

EPA

EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
10
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
30
Interceptions / Game
6
32
Fumbles / Game
18
6
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
28
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Saints Offense vs Steelers Defense
Saints logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
2
Yards / Game
5
2
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1

EPA

EPA / Play
8
2
EPA / Pass
6
4
EPA / Rush
21
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
8
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
19
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-7
L
L
U
12/20
1
W
L
O
12/27
3
W
P
P
01/03
6
W
W
O
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/19
8
W
W
U
09/26
25
W
W
O
10/03
-3
L
L
U
10/17
18
W
W
O
10/24
1
W
L
O
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
31
W
W
O
01/24
3
W
L
O
02/07
14
W
W
U
09/09
5
W
W
U
09/20
3
W
L
O
09/26
-3
L
L
O
10/03
2
W
L
U
10/10
-10
L
L
O
10/17
25
W
W
U
10/24
-13
L
L
O