PITSteelers
8-7
30
TBD
Lumen Field
47°F
4 mph
23
SEASeahawks
8-7
TBD
Lumen Field
47°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
10
7
6
30
Seahawks
0
14
3
6
23
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
468
369
Total Plays
71
49
Yards / Play
6.6
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.12
Passing Yards
266
281
Comp/Att
18/24(75%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
11.1
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.22
Rushing Yards
202
88
Rush Attempts
46
15
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
14
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
43%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.82
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-1.12
-5.82
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+70.0
Base HFA
+45.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
+18.4
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
25
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
11
31
EPA
EPA / Play
25
29
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
20
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
23
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
25
25
Seahawks Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
8
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
12
10
EPA / Rush
12
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
21
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
26
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U