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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ seahawks week 17, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
8-7
30
TBD
Lumen Field
47°F
4 mph
23
SEASeahawks
8-7
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
47°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
10
7
6
30
Seahawks
0
14
3
6
23

Spread

PIT logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
468
369
Total Plays
71
49
Yards / Play
6.6
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.12
Passing Yards
266
281
Comp/Att
18/24(75%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
11.1
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.22
Rushing Yards
202
88
Rush Attempts
46
15
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
14
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
43%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.82
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-1.12
-5.82
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+70.6
Base HFA
+46.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.9
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
+18.5
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Value
Ptile
09/30
4.5
81
10/06
-2.1
37
10/28
-3.4
28
11/03
-1.0
47
11/10
-2.2
37
11/14
-12.1
2
11/24
-11.8
2
01/03
0.2
47
11/14
-0.4
49
12/23
3.7
74
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
10/02
-4.0
24
10/15
-2.0
35
10/22
-0.9
44
10/29
-0.2
48
11/05
-9.0
5
11/12
7.2
91
11/19
0.0
49
11/23
-7.0
11
11/30
8.1
94
12/24
1.1
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Steelers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
25
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
11
31

EPA

EPA / Play
25
29
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
20
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
23
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
25
25
Seahawks Offense vs Steelers Defense
Seahawks logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
8
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21

EPA

EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
12
10
EPA / Rush
12
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
21
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
26
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
7
W
W
U
10/29
-10
L
L
U
11/02
4
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
O
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
-14
L
L
U
12/07
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
23
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
10
W
W
U
10/29
4
W
P
O
11/05
-34
L
L
U
11/12
3
W
L
O
11/19
-1
L
W
U
11/23
-18
L
L
O
11/30
-6
L
W
O
12/10
-12
L
W
U
12/18
3
W
W
U
12/24
3
W
P
U