PITSteelers
11-3
34
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
06
HOUTexans
4-10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
10
10
7
7
34
Texans
0
0
0
6
6
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
227
Total Plays
58
52
Yards / Play
5.7
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.28
-0.37
Passing Yards
--
51
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
8/17(47%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.0
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-1.08
Rushing Yards
104
176
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
12
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.55
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-42
Sack EPA
--
-12.08
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
--
80
Penalty EPA
--
-7.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-190
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+85.3
Base HFA
+55.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-85.0
Home QB Adjustment
-63.6
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
-0.7
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-63.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12
EPA
EPA / Play
5
30
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
19
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
27
RZ Efficiency
18
27
Texans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
11
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13
EPA
EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
25
12
EPA / Rush
12
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
28
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
9
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U