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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ texans week 16, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
11-3
34
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
6
HOUTexans
4-10
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
10
10
7
7
34
Texans
0
0
0
6
6

Spread

PIT logo
-9

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
330
227
Total Plays
58
52
Yards / Play
5.7
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.28
-0.37
Passing Yards
--
51
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
8/17(47%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.0
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-1.08
Rushing Yards
104
176
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
12
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.55
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-42
Sack EPA
--
-12.08
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
--
80
Penalty EPA
--
-7.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-188
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+86.5
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-85.0
Home QB Adjustment
-63.6
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
-1.6
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Value
Ptile
10/08
-7.8
9
10/15
-0.0
51
10/22
3.0
75
10/29
0.2
54
11/12
0.1
52
11/16
6.5
89
11/26
8.2
94
12/04
2.4
69
12/10
11.0
99
12/17
2.8
72
T. Yates headshot

T. Yates

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-63.6
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.1
30
12/11
0.9
59
12/18
-4.6
21
12/22
-6.0
14
01/01
-4.9
20
01/07
-2.0
36
01/15
-6.6
11
11/22
-0.9
45
12/20
-8.2
4
12/17
-8.7
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Texans Defense
Steelers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12

EPA

EPA / Play
5
30
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
19
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
27
RZ Efficiency
18
27
Texans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Texans logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
11
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13

EPA

EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
25
12
EPA / Rush
12
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
28
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
9
RZ Efficiency
20
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-21
L
L
U
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/22
15
W
W
O
10/29
5
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/16
23
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
L
O
12/04
3
W
L
O
12/10
1
W
L
O
12/17
-3
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-8
L
L
O
10/15
16
W
W
O
10/29
-3
L
W
O
11/05
-6
L
L
U
11/12
-26
L
L
U
11/19
10
W
W
O
11/27
-7
L
W
U
12/03
-11
L
L
U
12/10
-10
L
L
U
12/17
-38
L
L
O