PITSteelers
1-0
19
TBD
Nissan Stadium
87°F
3 mph
11
TENTitans
1-0
TBD
Nissan Stadium
87°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
6
0
6
19
Titans
3
0
0
8
11
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
127
240
Total Plays
54
62
Yards / Play
2.4
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.38
-0.51
Passing Yards
21
194
Comp/Att
9/17(53%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
1.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
-1.04
-0.39
Rushing Yards
106
46
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.57
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
7
14
Passing 1st downs
--
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
13%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
7
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
4
Turnover EPA
-5.14
-28.61
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-22
-23
Sack EPA
-8.50
-12.03
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
35
72
Penalty EPA
-4.46
-6.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model59.2%
Spread Pick
Steelers+6.0
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+28.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-22.2
Market Regression
+8.6
Final Difference
64.7
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Dixon
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
Value
Ptile
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
15
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
10
32
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
10
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
18
31
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
2
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
1
EPA
EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
16
4
EPA / Rush
28
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
13
10
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
5
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Titans
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U