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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ titans week 7, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
5-0
27
TBD
Nissan Stadium
55°F
3 mph
24
TENTitans
5-0
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
55°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
17
3
0
27
Titans
0
7
10
7
24

Spread

PIT logo
+1

Total

PUSH
51
P

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
362
292
Total Plays
74
56
Yards / Play
4.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.00
Passing Yards
--
210
Comp/Att
32/49(65%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.16
Rushing Yards
94
82
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
72%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
13
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.72
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-2.63
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
69
73
Penalty EPA
-9.33
-8.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model51.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+29.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.5
Market Regression
+33.4
Final Difference
8.3
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Value
Ptile
12/16
-3.1
27
12/23
7.0
90
12/30
0.8
52
09/08
-2.1
38
09/15
-5.6
17
09/14
2.3
61
09/20
3.4
69
09/27
-1.1
37
10/11
6.1
84
10/18
-3.1
23
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.5
Value
Ptile
12/22
0.6
57
12/29
1.3
63
01/04
-4.2
24
01/11
1.1
61
01/19
1.2
62
09/14
4.5
76
09/20
6.7
87
09/27
0.1
46
10/13
10.4
96
10/18
6.4
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Steelers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
22
28
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24

EPA

EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
32
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
25
7
Fumbles / Game
9
21
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
32
4th Down Efficiency
11
19
RZ Efficiency
8
30
Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Titans logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
13

EPA

EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
2
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
1
RZ Efficiency
2
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
W
U
12/15
-7
L
L
U
12/22
-6
L
L
U
12/29
-18
L
L
O
09/14
10
W
W
U
09/20
5
W
L
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/18
31
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-10
L
L
O
12/29
21
W
W
O
01/04
7
W
W
U
01/11
16
W
W
U
01/19
-11
L
L
O
09/14
2
W
L
U
09/20
3
W
L
O
09/27
1
W
L
O
10/13
26
W
W
O
10/18
6
W
W
O