PITSteelers
5-0
27
TBD
Nissan Stadium
55°F
3 mph
24
TENTitans
5-0
TBD
Nissan Stadium
55°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
17
3
0
27
Titans
0
7
10
7
24
Spread
+1
Total
PUSH
51
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
292
Total Plays
74
56
Yards / Play
4.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.00
Passing Yards
--
210
Comp/Att
32/49(65%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.16
Rushing Yards
94
82
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
72%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
13
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.72
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-2.63
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
69
73
Penalty EPA
-9.33
-8.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model51.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,597
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+29.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.5
Market Regression
+32.9
Final Difference
7.8
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+29.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
22
28
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24
EPA
EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
32
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
25
7
Fumbles / Game
9
21
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
32
4th Down Efficiency
11
19
RZ Efficiency
8
30
Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
13
EPA
EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
2
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
1
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U