PITSteelers
0-3
27
TBD
Wembley Stadium
54°F
11 mph
34
MINVikings
0-3
TBD
Wembley Stadium
54°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
3
7
10
27
Vikings
10
10
14
0
34
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
434
393
Total Plays
77
51
Yards / Play
5.6
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.46
Passing Yards
357
248
Comp/Att
36/51(71%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
9.9
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.60
Rushing Yards
77
145
Rush Attempts
21
25
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
16
Passing 1st downs
21
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.32
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-9.37
+1.26
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
50
89
Penalty EPA
-4.86
-13.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
-11.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-48.9
Home QB Adjustment
-49.7
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-49.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
32
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16
EPA
EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
9
29
EPA / Rush
29
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
11
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
30
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Vikings Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
13
Yards / Game
15
13
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
27
10
EPA / Rush
1
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
29
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
20
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
17
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U