PITSteelers
6-5
28
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
036
MINVikings
5-7
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
7
21
28
Vikings
6
17
6
7
36
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
458
Total Plays
71
67
Yards / Play
5.3
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.07
Passing Yards
271
--
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
14/31(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.31
Rushing Yards
106
242
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.7
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
13
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.42
-12.11
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-39
--
Sack EPA
-9.08
--
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
85
102
Penalty EPA
-7.52
-13.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+57.8
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
+6.8
Net QB Adjustment
+24.5
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
-10.7
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
24
Yards / Game
23
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
26
EPA
EPA / Play
24
15
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
6
12
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Vikings Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
22
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
15
14
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32
EPA
EPA / Play
18
14
EPA / Pass
12
18
EPA / Rush
26
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
17
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U