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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ vikings week 14, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
6-5
28
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
36
MINVikings
5-7
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
7
21
28
Vikings
6
17
6
7
36

Spread

MIN logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
377
458
Total Plays
71
67
Yards / Play
5.3
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.07
Passing Yards
271
--
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
14/31(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.31
Rushing Yards
106
242
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.7
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
13
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.42
-12.11
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-39
--
Sack EPA
-9.08
--
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
85
102
Penalty EPA
-7.52
-13.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+57.8
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
+6.8
Net QB Adjustment
+24.5
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
-10.7
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
Value
Ptile
09/19
-1.0
45
09/26
-3.7
26
10/03
-2.0
38
10/10
2.1
69
10/17
1.3
62
10/31
-0.4
49
11/08
-1.7
40
11/21
2.9
75
11/28
-6.3
13
12/05
3.0
76
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Value
Ptile
09/26
8.7
94
10/03
-5.9
15
10/10
-1.4
43
10/17
10.7
97
10/31
0.1
54
11/07
3.3
76
11/14
2.9
75
11/21
6.4
89
11/28
-0.4
50
12/05
3.6
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Steelers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
21
24
Yards / Game
23
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
26

EPA

EPA / Play
24
15
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
19
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
6
12
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Vikings Offense vs Steelers Defense
Vikings logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
22
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
15
14
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32

EPA

EPA / Play
18
14
EPA / Pass
12
18
EPA / Rush
26
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
17
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
10
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
P
10/31
5
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/14
0
T
L
U
11/21
-4
L
W
O
11/28
-31
L
L
O
12/05
1
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
13
W
W
U
10/03
-7
L
L
U
10/10
2
W
L
U
10/17
6
W
W
O
10/31
-4
L
L
U
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
7
W
W
U
11/21
3
W
W
O
11/28
-8
L
L
O
12/05
-2
L
L
O