HOUTexans
4-11
7
TBD
Levi's Stadium
50°F
6 mph
23
SF49ers
8-7
TBD
Levi's Stadium
50°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
0
0
7
49ers
0
3
7
13
23
Spread
-12
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
222
416
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
3.6
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.00
Passing Yards
136
241
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
10.5
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.37
Rushing Yards
86
175
Rush Attempts
27
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.50
-3.00
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-8
Sack EPA
-5.66
-1.43
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
67
111
Penalty EPA
-1.70
-9.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-12.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market83.4%
Model83.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+309
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,346
Home Field
+48.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.4
Home QB Adjustment
-26.8
Away QB Adjustment
-41.2
Market Regression
-72.4
Final Difference
280.4
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-41.2
T. Lance
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-26.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
30
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
5
RZ Efficiency
27
13
49ers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
27
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31
EPA
EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
8
26
EPA / Rush
15
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
20
8
Fumbles / Game
30
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
26
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
6
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U