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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ bears week 14, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
4-8
7
TBD
Soldier Field
34°F
1 mph
36
CHIBears
5-7
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
34°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
0
0
7
Bears
7
21
3
3
34

Spread

CHI logo
+1

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
263
410
Total Plays
64
59
Yards / Play
4.1
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.26
Passing Yards
155
241
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.30
Rushing Yards
108
169
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
7.3
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.14
+4.49
Sacks
7
3
Sack Yards
-64
-26
Sack EPA
-15.44
-5.25
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
50
44
Penalty EPA
-5.69
-4.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-46
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+23.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.3
Value
Ptile
09/27
-0.3
44
10/04
1.8
57
10/11
5.4
80
10/18
9.9
96
10/25
6.5
86
11/08
2.5
63
11/15
-1.0
38
11/22
13.3
99
11/26
5.7
81
12/06
0.9
51
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
11/28
5.4
85
12/05
8.0
93
12/15
-2.8
32
12/22
-5.1
19
12/29
-2.4
35
09/13
3.0
67
09/20
-6.1
10
09/27
-0.9
38
11/29
-2.7
25
12/06
0.7
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Bears Defense
Texans logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14

EPA

EPA / Play
10
10
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
23
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
17
Interceptions / Game
2
28
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
11
4th Down Efficiency
18
18
RZ Efficiency
25
6
Bears Offense vs Texans Defense
Bears logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
28
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32

EPA

EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
20
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
26
32
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
21
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-8
L
L
O
10/11
16
W
W
U
10/18
-6
L
L
O
10/25
-15
L
L
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/15
-3
L
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
U
11/26
16
W
W
O
12/06
-6
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
4
W
W
O
10/04
-8
L
L
U
10/08
1
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
U
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/08
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-6
L
L
U
11/29
-16
L
L
O
12/06
-4
L
L
O