HOUTexans
4-8
7
TBD
Soldier Field
34°F
1 mph
36
CHIBears
5-7
TBD
Soldier Field
34°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
0
0
7
Bears
7
21
3
3
34
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
263
410
Total Plays
64
59
Yards / Play
4.1
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.26
Passing Yards
155
241
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.30
Rushing Yards
108
169
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
7.3
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.14
+4.49
Sacks
7
3
Sack Yards
-64
-26
Sack EPA
-15.44
-5.25
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
50
44
Penalty EPA
-5.69
-4.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-46
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+23.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.3
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14
EPA
EPA / Play
10
10
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
23
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
17
Interceptions / Game
2
28
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
11
4th Down Efficiency
18
18
RZ Efficiency
25
6
Bears Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
28
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32
EPA
EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
20
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
26
32
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
21
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U