HOUTexans
9-3
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
34°F
4 mph
19
CINBengals
7-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
34°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
0
7
10
20
Bengals
6
10
3
0
19
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
285
Total Plays
77
58
Yards / Play
5.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.01
Passing Yards
268
184
Comp/Att
26/44(59%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.14
Rushing Yards
144
101
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
56%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-15.02
-4.90
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-32
-5
Sack EPA
-7.39
-4.90
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
50
27
Penalty EPA
-5.05
-2.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+118.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-116.2
Market Regression
+18.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-116.2
Value
Ptile
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
12
EPA
EPA / Play
14
10
EPA / Pass
10
11
EPA / Rush
11
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
27
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
30
8
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
2
EPA
EPA / Play
19
2
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
21
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
4
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U