HOUTexans
1-0
21
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
75°F
12 mph
31
CLEBrowns
0-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
75°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
7
0
7
21
Browns
7
7
10
7
31
Spread
+13.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
355
Total Plays
58
57
Yards / Play
5.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.22
Passing Yards
220
199
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
19/21(90%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.13
Rushing Yards
82
156
Rush Attempts
28
34
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
57%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.44
-3.70
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-1.28
-2.88
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
78
62
Penalty EPA
-2.94
-7.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model85.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+246
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+91.3
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-88.2
Market Regression
+33.5
Final Difference
304.1
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-88.2
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
14
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
8
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
30
21
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
30
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
27
27
RZ Efficiency
27
28
Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
28
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
20
26
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
4
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U