HOUTexans
6-3
37
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
9 mph
9
TBBuccaneers
4-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
9
7
14
7
37
Buccaneers
0
3
0
6
9
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
420
231
Total Plays
60
58
Yards / Play
7.0
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.37
Passing Yards
235
141
Comp/Att
11/15(73%)
15/36(42%)
Yards / Pass
15.7
3.9
EPA / Pass
+1.04
-0.62
Rushing Yards
185
90
Rush Attempts
44
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
30%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-16.84
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-29
Sack EPA
-1.41
-7.00
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
54
49
Penalty EPA
-8.30
-3.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-65
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.4
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
13
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32
EPA
EPA / Play
14
32
EPA / Pass
10
30
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
4
20
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
31
RZ Efficiency
22
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
29
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
29
12
Fumbles / Game
29
22
Turnover EPA / Game
1
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
17
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U