HOUTexans
9-5
23
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
73°F
11 mph
20
TBBuccaneers
7-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
73°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
4
7
3
3
17
Buccaneers
3
14
3
0
20
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
435
Total Plays
63
72
Yards / Play
3.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.29
Passing Yards
161
329
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
25/48(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.11
Rushing Yards
68
106
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
29%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.75
-23.64
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-23
-6
Sack EPA
-4.49
-3.14
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
+1.81
-6.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model50.4%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+3.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+55.0
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
-24.8
Final Difference
-2.5
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
29
Yards / Game
11
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
1
EPA
EPA / Play
8
11
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
17
2
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
4
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
9
5
Buccaneers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24
EPA
EPA / Play
19
26
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
26
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
3
Interceptions / Game
32
23
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
31
4th Down Efficiency
11
9
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
9-1
O/U