HOUTexans
2-6
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
027
ARICardinals
4-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
10
0
7
24
Cardinals
1
7
6
7
21
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
235
332
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
3.5
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.14
Passing Yards
159
235
Comp/Att
22/43(51%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.07
Rushing Yards
76
97
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-6.85
-12.05
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-42
-6
Sack EPA
-11.34
-4.15
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
53
29
Penalty EPA
-5.82
-4.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+99.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-102.1
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-102.1
Value
Ptile
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
6
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
29
4
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
11
4th Down Efficiency
26
8
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Cardinals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
3
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
23
EPA
EPA / Play
21
19
EPA / Pass
19
28
EPA / Rush
26
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
28
32
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
24
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U