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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ cardinals week 10, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
2-6
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
27
ARICardinals
4-4
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
10
0
7
24
Cardinals
1
7
6
7
21

Spread

HOU logo
+4

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
235
332
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
3.5
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.14
Passing Yards
159
235
Comp/Att
22/43(51%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.07
Rushing Yards
76
97
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-6.85
-12.05
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-42
-6
Sack EPA
-11.34
-4.15
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
53
29
Penalty EPA
-5.82
-4.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+99.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-102.1
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-102.1
Value
Ptile
10/20
-0.9
45
11/03
8.7
93
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Value
Ptile
12/16
-0.8
44
12/23
-4.5
22
09/08
1.2
59
09/15
-1.8
41
09/22
-10.4
3
09/29
-3.8
26
10/06
-6.8
12
10/13
1.4
60
10/17
-5.7
15
10/27
-2.6
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Texans logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
6
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1

EPA

EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
29
4
EPA / Rush
22
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
11
4th Down Efficiency
26
8
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Cardinals Offense vs Texans Defense
Cardinals logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
3
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
23

EPA

EPA / Play
21
19
EPA / Pass
19
28
EPA / Rush
26
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
28
32
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
24
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
6
W
W
U
01/13
-13
L
L
O
09/09
3
W
L
O
09/15
6
W
L
O
09/22
-21
L
L
U
09/29
-3
L
L
O
10/06
-31
L
L
U
10/13
-25
L
L
O
10/20
-1
L
W
U
11/03
-3
L
L
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-15
L
L
O
12/30
-14
L
W
O
09/08
-3
L
W
O
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
U
10/13
-12
L
L
O
10/17
-12
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
U