HOUTexans
-
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
56°F
7 mph
34
KCChiefs
-
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
56°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
0
0
13
20
Chiefs
0
17
7
10
34
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
369
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
6.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.29
Passing Yards
242
203
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.44
Rushing Yards
118
166
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.52
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-11
-8
Sack EPA
-4.76
-2.05
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
37
--
Penalty EPA
-5.14
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,658
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
-5.6
Final Difference
222.5
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+4.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
10
Yards / Game
11
15
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
23
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
27
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
29
RZ Efficiency
25
32
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
32
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
9
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
11
14
RZ Efficiency
19
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
8-1-1
ATS
4-6
O/U