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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ chiefs week 1, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
-
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
56°F
7 mph
34
KCChiefs
-
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
56°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
0
0
13
20
Chiefs
0
17
7
10
34

Spread

KC logo
-9.5

Total

OVER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
360
369
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
6.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.29
Passing Yards
242
203
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.44
Rushing Yards
118
166
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.52
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-11
-8
Sack EPA
-4.76
-2.05
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
37
--
Penalty EPA
-5.14
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,657
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
-5.5
Final Difference
222.5
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
Value
Ptile
10/27
4.3
80
11/03
5.9
86
11/17
-10.0
4
11/21
1.8
66
12/01
4.4
81
12/08
2.2
67
12/15
0.7
57
12/21
-7.9
9
01/04
2.9
72
01/12
6.7
89
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
11/10
11.0
99
11/18
0.9
59
12/01
-0.5
48
12/08
2.6
69
12/15
4.4
81
12/22
7.2
91
12/29
-1.4
43
01/12
10.8
98
01/19
9.4
95
02/02
-0.2
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Texans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
18
10
Yards / Game
11
15
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19

EPA

EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
23
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
27
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
29
RZ Efficiency
25
32
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Chiefs logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
32

EPA

EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
9
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
11
14
RZ Efficiency
19
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
23
W
W
U
11/17
-34
L
L
U
11/21
3
W
L
U
12/01
6
W
W
O
12/08
-14
L
L
O
12/15
3
W
W
U
12/21
3
W
P
U
12/29
-21
L
L
O
01/04
3
W
W
U
01/12
-20
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
8-1-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
-3
L
L
O
11/18
7
W
W
U
12/01
31
W
W
U
12/08
7
W
W
U
12/15
20
W
W
U
12/22
23
W
W
U
12/29
10
W
P
O
01/12
20
W
W
O
01/19
11
W
W
O
02/02
11
W
W
U