HOUTexans
9-5
19
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
30°F
5 mph
27
KCChiefs
13-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
30°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
6
3
19
Chiefs
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
375
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
5.4
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.13
Passing Yards
227
251
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.23
Rushing Yards
84
124
Rush Attempts
17
28
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
54%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.90
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-9
Sack EPA
-2.22
-1.97
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-4.53
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+112
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
+53.5
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.9
Home QB Adjustment
-15.0
Away QB Adjustment
-23.9
Market Regression
+58.2
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-23.9
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-15.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
10
EPA
EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
26
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
19
2
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
12
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
23
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U