HOUTexans
1-4
3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
031
INDColts
1-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
0
0
3
Colts
7
3
14
7
31
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
388
Total Plays
74
48
Yards / Play
4.8
8.1
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.27
Passing Yards
229
214
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
11/20(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
10.7
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.33
Rushing Yards
124
174
Rush Attempts
29
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
53%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.98
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-3.20
-3.01
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
-2.52
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+30.2
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
-18.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+124.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-123.9
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-123.9
Value
Ptile
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
11
Yards / Game
32
17
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
12
EPA
EPA / Play
30
12
EPA / Pass
28
21
EPA / Rush
30
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
27
26
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
16
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
26
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
18
26
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
9
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
19
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U