HOUTexans
6-6
22
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
017
INDColts
6-6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
10
3
6
22
Colts
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
348
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
4.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.15
Passing Yards
131
265
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
24/45(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.21
Rushing Yards
185
83
Rush Attempts
41
15
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
20%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.82
-16.85
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-11
Sack EPA
-3.05
-4.89
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
124
59
Penalty EPA
-8.15
-7.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.2
Home QB Adjustment
+24.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.9
Market Regression
+6.3
Final Difference
147.7
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
28
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25
EPA
EPA / Play
31
25
EPA / Pass
29
25
EPA / Rush
26
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
25
29
Fumbles / Game
10
17
Turnover EPA / Game
11
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
31
6
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
12
Yards / Game
9
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11
EPA
EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
18
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U