HOUTexans
2-11
3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
025
INDColts
8-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
0
0
0
3
Colts
7
13
3
0
23
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
331
Total Plays
63
69
Yards / Play
3.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.07
Passing Yards
132
179
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.70
-0.13
Rushing Yards
107
152
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.45
-5.76
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-36
-1
Sack EPA
-6.86
-1.72
Penalties
14
4
Penalty Yards
114
--
Penalty EPA
-14.98
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+148
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+97.1
Home QB Adjustment
+20.9
Away QB Adjustment
-76.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-76.2
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
14
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30
EPA
EPA / Play
30
20
EPA / Pass
29
21
EPA / Rush
22
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
28
21
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
26
18
RZ Efficiency
26
30
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
23
EPA
EPA / Play
10
19
EPA / Pass
16
28
EPA / Rush
6
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
17
Interceptions / Game
17
32
Fumbles / Game
2
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
8
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U