HOUTexans
6-7
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
010
INDColts
6-7
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
3
10
16
Colts
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
190
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
4.5
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.32
Passing Yards
150
140
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.33
Rushing Yards
155
50
Rush Attempts
37
19
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
14
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.42
-6.16
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-20
Sack EPA
-5.09
-5.59
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
48
94
Penalty EPA
-6.76
-9.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+43.4
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
-26.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.7
Net QB Adjustment
-9.9
Home QB Adjustment
-47.9
Away QB Adjustment
-38.0
Market Regression
+13.1
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-38.0
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-47.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
20
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
23
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25
EPA
EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
22
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
15
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
30
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
28
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11
EPA
EPA / Play
27
3
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
32
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
3
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
24
RZ Efficiency
20
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U