HOUTexans
4-9
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
9-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
10
3
7
20
Colts
14
0
3
10
27
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
350
Total Plays
67
53
Yards / Play
6.3
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.29
Passing Yards
342
223
Comp/Att
33/41(80%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.32
Rushing Yards
83
127
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
53%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.61
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-31
-5
Sack EPA
-11.65
-1.36
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
24
35
Penalty EPA
-2.69
-3.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.4
Away QB Adjustment
+13.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
11
Yards / Game
11
9
Passing Yards / Game
3
25
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
23
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
18
6
RZ Efficiency
25
22
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
7
31
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
10
32
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
20
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U