nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ colts week 16, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

HOU logo
HOUTexans
10-4
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
19
INDColts
1-13
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
0
3
3
16
Colts
3
3
3
10
19

Spread

IND logo
+7

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
283
320
Total Plays
51
76
Yards / Play
5.5
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.08
Passing Yards
112
225
Comp/Att
13/16(81%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.43
-0.03
Rushing Yards
171
95
Rush Attempts
31
32
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
10%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
33%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.32
-5.62
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-20
-19
Sack EPA
-10.21
-7.05
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
84
35
Penalty EPA
-10.83
-3.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model70.9%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,374
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+92.0
Home QB Adjustment
-9.9
Away QB Adjustment
-101.9
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
-154.6
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

T. Yates headshot

T. Yates

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-101.9
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.1
30
12/11
0.9
59
12/18
-4.6
21
D. Orlovsky headshot

D. Orlovsky

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Value
Ptile
10/12
-6.1
10
10/19
-0.6
48
10/26
3.1
72
11/02
0.4
54
12/14
4.6
82
12/21
-8.5
5
12/28
-1.8
38
12/04
6.4
87
12/11
-6.9
10
12/18
-2.9
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
11
28
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
29

EPA

EPA / Play
14
25
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
11
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
4
31
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
22
31
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2

EPA

EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
30
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
31
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
10
RZ Efficiency
27
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-5
L
L
U
10/16
-15
L
L
U
10/23
34
W
W
O
10/30
10
W
P
U
11/06
18
W
W
U
11/13
28
W
W
O
11/27
7
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/18
-15
L
L
U
IND logo

Colts

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-4
L
L
O
10/16
-10
L
L
O
10/23
-55
L
L
O
10/30
-17
L
L
U
11/06
-24
L
L
U
11/13
-14
L
L
U
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-7
L
W
O
12/11
-14
L
W
U
12/18
14
W
W
U