HOUTexans
10-4
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
019
INDColts
1-13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
0
3
3
16
Colts
3
3
3
10
19
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
320
Total Plays
51
76
Yards / Play
5.5
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.08
Passing Yards
112
225
Comp/Att
13/16(81%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.43
-0.03
Rushing Yards
171
95
Rush Attempts
31
32
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
10%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
33%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.32
-5.62
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-20
-19
Sack EPA
-10.21
-7.05
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
84
35
Penalty EPA
-10.83
-3.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model70.9%
Spread Pick
Colts+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,373
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+92.0
Home QB Adjustment
-9.9
Away QB Adjustment
-101.9
Market Regression
-3.2
Final Difference
-154.7
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-101.9
Value
Ptile
D. Orlovsky
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
28
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
29
EPA
EPA / Play
14
25
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
11
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
4
31
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
22
31
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2
EPA
EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
30
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
31
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
10
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U