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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ colts week 17, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
4-11
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
22
INDColts
3-12
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
10
0
0
13
Colts
0
7
7
6
20

Spread

IND logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
209
250
Total Plays
53
62
Yards / Play
3.9
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.09
Passing Yards
124
104
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.05
Rushing Yards
85
146
Rush Attempts
27
36
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
45%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.05
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-10
Sack EPA
-3.65
-1.52
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-3.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model64.4%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,305
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+41.3
Base HFA
+56.8
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+83.1
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
-67.0
Market Regression
+75.5
Final Difference
102.8
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

T. Yates headshot

T. Yates

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-67.0
Value
Ptile
12/11
0.9
59
12/18
-4.6
21
12/22
-6.0
14
01/01
-4.9
20
01/07
-2.0
36
01/15
-6.6
11
11/22
-0.9
45
12/20
-8.2
4
12/17
-8.7
6
12/25
-10.5
2
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
10/16
-0.6
47
10/22
-7.8
8
10/29
-1.0
45
11/05
3.3
76
11/12
-1.5
42
11/26
-9.3
4
12/03
-4.3
23
12/10
-4.6
21
12/14
0.0
52
12/23
-1.6
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
17
30
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25

EPA

EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
12
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
20
15
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
31
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12

EPA

EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
30
25
EPA / Rush
18
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
31
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
16
W
W
O
10/29
-3
L
W
O
11/05
-6
L
L
U
11/12
-26
L
L
U
11/19
10
W
W
O
11/27
-7
L
W
U
12/03
-11
L
L
U
12/10
-10
L
L
U
12/17
-38
L
L
O
12/25
-28
L
L
U
IND logo

Colts

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-14
L
L
O
10/22
-27
L
L
U
10/29
-1
L
W
O
11/05
6
W
W
U
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/26
-4
L
L
U
12/03
-20
L
L
U
12/10
-6
L
L
U
12/14
-12
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
W
U