HOUTexans
4-11
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
022
INDColts
3-12
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
10
0
0
13
Colts
0
7
7
6
20
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
209
250
Total Plays
53
62
Yards / Play
3.9
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.09
Passing Yards
124
104
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.05
Rushing Yards
85
146
Rush Attempts
27
36
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
45%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.05
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-10
Sack EPA
-3.65
-1.52
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-3.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model64.4%
Spread Pick
Texans+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,306
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+83.1
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
-67.0
Market Regression
+75.4
Final Difference
103.2
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-67.0
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
30
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25
EPA
EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
12
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
20
15
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
31
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12
EPA
EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
30
25
EPA / Rush
18
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U