HOUTexans
2-13
32
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
031
INDColts
4-11
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
1
7
8
26
Colts
7
0
8
10
25
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
398
Total Plays
65
70
Yards / Play
5.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.13
Passing Yards
303
202
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.37
Rushing Yards
59
196
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.52
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
36%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-15.27
-20.45
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-7
Sack EPA
-1.67
-2.43
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
41
--
Penalty EPA
-6.42
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model51.7%
Spread Pick
Texans+3.0
Expected Value
+8.8%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,355
Away nfelo
1,348
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-69.0
Home QB Adjustment
-77.1
Away QB Adjustment
-8.1
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
11.9
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
S. Ehlinger
Proj. Value
-5.5
Team Elo Adj
-77.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
22
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
20
EPA
EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
31
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
31
24
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
9
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
28
32
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
32
EPA
EPA / Play
32
12
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
30
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
14
4th Down Efficiency
23
26
RZ Efficiency
29
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U