HOUTexans
2-4
26
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
13 mph
44
MIADolphins
2-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
13
13
26
Dolphins
21
14
0
3
38
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
503
Total Plays
79
59
Yards / Play
4.1
8.5
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.23
Passing Yards
251
255
Comp/Att
23/50(46%)
19/20(95%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
12.8
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.68
Rushing Yards
71
248
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
2.8
7.1
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.85
-4.74
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-22
-41
Sack EPA
-3.04
-6.59
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
25
52
Penalty EPA
-1.31
-6.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.5
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.9
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
16
28
EPA
EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
26
31
EPA / Rush
22
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
7
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
20
4
EPA / Rush
17
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
28
24
RZ Efficiency
19
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U