HOUTexans
5-6
24
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
36°F
5 mph
34
PHIEagles
7-4
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
36°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
14
0
24
Eagles
7
13
0
14
34
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
416
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
6.7
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.31
Passing Yards
323
301
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.58
Rushing Yards
108
115
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
18
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
60%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.65
-1.36
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-1
Sack EPA
-4.54
-0.76
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
--
85
Penalty EPA
--
-7.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model74.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.1
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
182.5
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
7
15
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
4
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
29
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
21
4th Down Efficiency
14
9
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Eagles Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
3
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
11
32
EPA / Rush
1
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
21
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
20
32
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
20
4th Down Efficiency
1
32
RZ Efficiency
15
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U