HOUTexans
0-3
13
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
06
JAXJaguars
2-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
6
0
7
13
Jaguars
3
3
0
0
6
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
422
Total Plays
56
73
Yards / Play
4.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.13
Passing Yards
132
--
Comp/Att
16/24(67%)
25/47(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.17
Rushing Yards
116
136
Rush Attempts
31
26
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.25
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.23
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
25
48
Penalty EPA
-4.05
-6.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model70.2%
Spread Pick
Texans+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,381
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
-17.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+24.6
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
-16.2
Market Regression
-2.1
Final Difference
149.1
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-16.2
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
14
Yards / Game
31
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
12
EPA
EPA / Play
31
17
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
31
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
28
25
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
27
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
32
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
14
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
13
7
Fumbles / Game
30
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
14
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
17
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
2-7-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U