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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jaguars week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-4
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
18 mph
20
JAXJaguars
1-4
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
18 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
3
0
15
25
Jaguars
0
7
7
6
20

Spread

HOU logo
+3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
382
394
Total Plays
68
77
Yards / Play
5.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.03
Passing Yards
287
311
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
30/53(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.07
Rushing Yards
95
83
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
24
26
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-14.10
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-20
Sack EPA
-1.47
-4.85
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
69
64
Penalty EPA
-11.66
-6.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,359
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+36.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
-20.9
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
Value
Ptile
10/12
-0.7
45
10/19
-10.3
2
10/26
1.3
59
11/02
-4.0
26
11/06
-0.5
47
11/16
-6.2
15
11/23
-4.8
21
11/30
-4.9
21
12/07
-9.9
3
09/13
-4.9
16
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
11/30
-2.5
32
12/07
-6.4
13
12/14
-12.0
1
12/18
-3.9
27
12/28
-5.8
16
09/13
-7.8
5
09/20
5.1
82
09/27
-1.7
37
10/04
3.5
76
10/11
2.6
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
32
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15

EPA

EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
26
26
EPA / Rush
22
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
17
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11

EPA

EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
30
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
17
Interceptions / Game
26
14
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
18
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
24
W
W
O
12/07
14
W
W
U
12/14
-7
L
P
U
12/21
12
W
W
U
12/28
6
W
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
O
09/20
-7
L
L
P
09/27
10
W
W
U
10/04
-27
L
L
O
10/08
-7
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
1
W
W
O
12/07
-14
L
L
U
12/14
-8
L
W
U
12/18
8
W
W
U
12/28
-6
L
W
O
09/13
-11
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O
09/27
-34
L
L
O
10/04
-3
L
W
U
10/11
-7
L
L
O