HOUTexans
1-4
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
18 mph
20
JAXJaguars
1-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
3
0
15
25
Jaguars
0
7
7
6
20
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
394
Total Plays
68
77
Yards / Play
5.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.03
Passing Yards
287
311
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
30/53(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.07
Rushing Yards
95
83
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
26
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-14.10
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-20
Sack EPA
-1.47
-4.85
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
69
64
Penalty EPA
-11.66
-6.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,358
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+36.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
-20.9
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
32
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
26
26
EPA / Rush
22
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
17
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11
EPA
EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
30
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
17
Interceptions / Game
26
14
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
18
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U