HOUTexans
3-3
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
68°F
15 mph
7
JAXJaguars
3-3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
68°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
6
7
7
0
20
Jaguars
0
0
7
0
7
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
259
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
4.4
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.30
Passing Yards
131
189
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.16
Rushing Yards
141
70
Rush Attempts
37
22
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.51
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
8
9
3rd Down Attempts
16
19
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-12.22
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-28
Sack EPA
-2.12
-5.55
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
35
15
Penalty EPA
-4.15
+0.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+62.0
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+13.5
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.5
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
4
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20
EPA
EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
6
23
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
27
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
23
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
31
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
1-9
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U