HOUTexans
1-6
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
14 mph
25
JAXJaguars
1-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
10
7
0
27
Jaguars
7
9
3
6
25
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
403
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
6.0
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.07
Passing Yards
267
288
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.06
Rushing Yards
107
115
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-2.85
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-16
Sack EPA
-3.38
-3.04
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
18
78
Penalty EPA
-2.28
-6.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model78.0%
Spread Pick
Texans-7.0
Expected Value
+12.4%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-261
Home nfelo
1,346
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+1.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-129.9
Home QB Adjustment
-109.8
Away QB Adjustment
+20.1
Market Regression
-5.1
Final Difference
-219.8
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
J. Luton
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-109.8
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
30
EPA
EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
23
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
21
4th Down Efficiency
18
26
RZ Efficiency
25
24
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
32
EPA
EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
26
31
EPA / Rush
17
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
27
32
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
14
RZ Efficiency
14
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U