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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jaguars week 9, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-6
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
14 mph
25
JAXJaguars
1-6
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
10
7
0
27
Jaguars
7
9
3
6
25

Spread

JAX logo
+7

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
374
403
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
6.0
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.07
Passing Yards
267
288
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.06
Rushing Yards
107
115
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-2.85
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-16
Sack EPA
-3.38
-3.04
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
18
78
Penalty EPA
-2.28
-6.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model78.4%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.4%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-265
Home nfelo
1,345
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+1.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-129.9
Home QB Adjustment
-109.8
Away QB Adjustment
+20.1
Market Regression
-6.3
Final Difference
-224.2
Model Spread
+9.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Value
Ptile
12/21
-7.9
9
01/04
2.9
72
01/12
6.7
89
09/10
-0.0
46
09/20
-0.1
45
09/27
-0.3
44
10/04
1.8
57
10/11
5.4
80
10/18
9.9
96
10/25
6.5
86
J. Luton headshot

J. Luton

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-109.8
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
30

EPA

EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
23
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
21
4th Down Efficiency
18
26
RZ Efficiency
25
24
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
32

EPA

EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
26
31
EPA / Rush
17
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
27
32
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
14
RZ Efficiency
14
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-21
L
L
O
01/04
3
W
W
U
01/12
-20
L
L
O
09/10
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-17
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-8
L
L
O
10/11
16
W
W
U
10/18
-6
L
L
O
10/25
-15
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
4
W
W
U
12/22
-12
L
L
U
12/29
18
W
W
O
09/13
7
W
W
O
09/20
-3
L
W
O
09/24
-18
L
L
U
10/04
-8
L
L
O
10/11
-16
L
L
U
10/18
-18
L
L
U
10/25
-10
L
L
O