HOUTexans
7-5
23
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
020
JAXJaguars
2-9
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
6
10
7
23
Jaguars
0
3
3
14
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
375
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
5.3
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.01
Passing Yards
218
--
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
24/44(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.21
Rushing Yards
108
97
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.16
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-3.62
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
15
30
Penalty EPA
-2.18
-5.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.5
Expected Value
+13.1%
Cover Probability
59.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+55.4
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
-18.3
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+32.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-21.3
Market Regression
+17.0
Final Difference
-35.2
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-21.3
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
26
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
25
9
EPA
EPA / Play
18
6
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
16
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
23
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
13
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U