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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jaguars week 13, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
7-5
23
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0
20
JAXJaguars
2-9
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
6
10
7
23
Jaguars
0
3
3
14
20

Spread

JAX logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
326
375
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
5.3
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.01
Passing Yards
218
--
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
24/44(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.21
Rushing Yards
108
97
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.16
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-3.62
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
15
30
Penalty EPA
-2.18
-5.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model55.4%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+55.0
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+32.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-21.3
Market Regression
+16.9
Final Difference
-37.5
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-21.3
Value
Ptile
09/22
-6.2
11
09/29
4.9
79
10/06
6.0
84
10/13
0.6
52
10/20
-8.9
4
10/27
-0.2
48
10/31
-8.2
5
11/10
-7.2
8
11/18
0.4
51
11/24
-4.3
21
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
01/07
2.4
66
09/08
-3.8
23
09/15
-2.0
34
09/23
-6.5
10
09/29
-1.1
40
10/06
7.3
92
10/13
-0.0
49
10/20
3.4
72
10/27
5.4
81
11/03
-5.1
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24

EPA

EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
26
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
25
9

EPA

EPA / Play
18
6
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
16
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
23
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
13
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
09/29
4
W
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
U
10/13
20
W
W
O
10/20
-2
L
W
U
10/27
3
W
L
U
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/10
-3
L
W
U
11/18
24
W
W
O
11/24
-5
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-5
L
L
U
09/23
-37
L
L
O
09/29
-4
L
W
U
10/06
3
W
L
O
10/13
-19
L
L
O
10/20
16
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
W
O
11/03
-5
L
W
O
11/10
-5
L
W
U
11/17
-46
L
L
O