HOUTexans
6-6
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
15 mph
13
JAXJaguars
2-10
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
7
10
27
Jaguars
7
6
0
0
13
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
262
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
4.8
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.14
Passing Yards
135
188
Comp/Att
13/19(68%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.27
Rushing Yards
169
74
Rush Attempts
43
22
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
21%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.14
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
-1.45
-6.09
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
64
40
Penalty EPA
-8.22
-7.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-169
Home nfelo
1,276
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
-21.2
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
26
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
14
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
15
9
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9
EPA
EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
16
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
7
RZ Efficiency
31
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U