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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jaguars week 14, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
6-6
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
15 mph
13
JAXJaguars
2-10
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
7
10
27
Jaguars
7
6
0
0
13

Spread

HOU logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
304
262
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
4.8
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.14
Passing Yards
135
188
Comp/Att
13/19(68%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.27
Rushing Yards
169
74
Rush Attempts
43
22
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
21%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.14
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
-1.45
-6.09
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
64
40
Penalty EPA
-8.22
-7.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-169
Home nfelo
1,275
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
-21.4
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
Value
Ptile
09/07
1.5
61
09/14
1.1
57
09/21
-0.4
47
09/28
-1.6
38
10/05
-4.5
23
10/09
-2.9
30
10/20
2.8
70
10/26
-4.2
25
11/02
-2.7
31
11/30
15.5
100
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Value
Ptile
09/28
-0.7
45
10/05
-4.9
21
10/12
0.6
53
10/19
-6.5
12
10/26
-4.4
23
11/02
1.1
58
11/09
-5.5
17
11/23
-8.0
8
11/30
-2.5
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
14
26
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27

EPA

EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
14
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
15
9
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9

EPA

EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
16
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
7
RZ Efficiency
31
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-13
L
L
O
09/28
6
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
W
U
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/20
-7
L
L
O
10/26
14
W
W
O
11/02
-10
L
L
O
11/16
16
W
W
U
11/23
-9
L
L
U
11/30
24
W
W
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-27
L
L
O
09/28
-19
L
L
O
10/05
-8
L
L
U
10/12
-2
L
W
U
10/19
18
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
U
11/02
-10
L
P
O
11/09
-14
L
L
O
11/23
-20
L
L
U
11/30
1
W
W
O