HOUTexans
4-9
7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
72°F
5 mph
45
JAXJaguars
9-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
72°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
7
0
7
Jaguars
7
24
7
7
45
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
186
464
Total Plays
56
68
Yards / Play
3.3
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.29
Passing Yards
99
326
Comp/Att
12/31(39%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
11.2
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.64
Rushing Yards
87
138
Rush Attempts
21
38
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
25
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
25%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
6
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.43
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
--
Sack EPA
-6.73
-0.77
Penalties
14
8
Penalty Yards
127
54
Penalty EPA
-16.18
-5.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+281
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+60.0
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+75.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
-62.0
Market Regression
-12.5
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-62.0
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
3
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
12
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
12
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
29
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
28
6
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
20
3
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
32
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
12
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
10
25
EPA / Rush
6
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
1
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U