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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ lions week 12, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
3-7
41
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
25
DETLions
4-6
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
10
3
15
35
Lions
7
7
3
8
25

Spread

HOU logo
-3

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
386
390
Total Plays
51
77
Yards / Play
7.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.19
Passing Yards
309
281
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
11.9
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.73
-0.02
Rushing Yards
77
109
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.30
-19.16
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-16
Sack EPA
-3.44
-5.02
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
74
44
Penalty EPA
-8.69
-4.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-88
Home nfelo
1,392
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-33.7
Home QB Adjustment
-7.2
Away QB Adjustment
+26.4
Market Regression
-35.5
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+26.4
Value
Ptile
09/10
-0.0
46
09/20
-0.1
45
09/27
-0.3
44
10/04
1.8
57
10/11
5.4
80
10/18
9.9
96
10/25
6.5
86
11/08
2.5
63
11/15
-1.0
38
11/22
13.3
99
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Value
Ptile
09/13
1.0
51
09/20
-2.2
28
09/27
-0.5
42
10/04
-1.4
34
10/18
-1.6
33
10/25
1.6
55
11/01
0.3
48
11/08
-3.0
24
11/15
6.1
83
11/22
-9.9
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Lions Defense
Texans logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28

EPA

EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
23
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
28
4th Down Efficiency
18
22
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Lions Offense vs Texans Defense
Lions logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
20
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
32

EPA

EPA / Play
20
31
EPA / Pass
18
31
EPA / Rush
29
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
17
32
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
24
14
RZ Efficiency
10
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-17
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-8
L
L
O
10/11
16
W
W
U
10/18
-6
L
L
O
10/25
-15
L
L
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/15
-3
L
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-4
L
L
O
09/20
-21
L
L
O
09/27
3
W
W
U
10/04
-6
L
L
O
10/18
18
W
W
U
10/25
1
W
W
U
11/01
-20
L
L
O
11/08
-14
L
L
O
11/15
3
W
W
O
11/22
-20
L
L
U