HOUTexans
3-7
41
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
025
DETLions
4-6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
10
3
15
35
Lions
7
7
3
8
25
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
390
Total Plays
51
77
Yards / Play
7.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.19
Passing Yards
309
281
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
11.9
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.73
-0.02
Rushing Yards
77
109
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.30
-19.16
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-16
Sack EPA
-3.44
-5.02
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
74
44
Penalty EPA
-8.69
-4.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-85
Home nfelo
1,396
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-33.7
Home QB Adjustment
-7.2
Away QB Adjustment
+26.4
Market Regression
-35.5
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+26.4
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28
EPA
EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
23
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
28
4th Down Efficiency
18
22
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Lions Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
20
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
32
EPA
EPA / Play
20
31
EPA / Pass
18
31
EPA / Rush
29
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
17
32
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
24
14
RZ Efficiency
10
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U