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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ panthers week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
3-3
13
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
77°F
14 mph
15
CARPanthers
0-6
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
77°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
6
0
13
Panthers
0
6
6
3
15

Spread

CAR logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
229
224
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
4.0
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.03
Passing Yards
119
180
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.01
Rushing Yards
110
44
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
3.7
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
42%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.35
--
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-21
-55
Sack EPA
-2.39
-8.06
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
70
20
Penalty EPA
-7.74
-2.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,362
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+44.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.4
Away Bye Adj
-33.6
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-20.1
Home QB Adjustment
-9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Value
Ptile
09/10
-3.2
28
09/17
0.6
53
09/24
5.2
82
10/01
5.3
83
10/08
0.3
52
10/15
-2.8
30
B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Value
Ptile
09/10
-8.3
8
09/18
-0.2
47
10/01
-4.0
25
10/08
-0.4
46
10/15
-3.1
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Panthers Defense
Texans logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23

EPA

EPA / Play
14
27
EPA / Pass
11
17
EPA / Rush
27
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
16
28
Panthers Offense vs Texans Defense
Panthers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
32
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8

EPA

EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
18
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
15
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
18
RZ Efficiency
21
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-6
L
W
O
12/24
5
W
W
U
01/01
-28
L
L
U
01/08
1
W
W
O
09/10
-16
L
L
U
09/17
-11
L
L
O
09/24
20
W
W
O
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
-2
L
W
U
10/15
7
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-8
L
L
O
12/24
14
W
W
O
01/01
-6
L
L
O
01/08
3
W
W
U
09/10
-14
L
L
U
09/18
-3
L
P
U
09/24
-10
L
L
O
10/01
-8
L
L
U
10/08
-18
L
L
O
10/15
-21
L
L
O