HOUTexans
3-3
13
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
77°F
14 mph
15
CARPanthers
0-6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
77°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
6
0
13
Panthers
0
6
6
3
15
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
224
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
4.0
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.03
Passing Yards
119
180
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.01
Rushing Yards
110
44
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
3.7
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
42%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.35
--
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-21
-55
Sack EPA
-2.39
-8.06
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
70
20
Penalty EPA
-7.74
-2.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-33
Home nfelo
1,363
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+44.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.4
Away Bye Adj
-33.6
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-20.0
Home QB Adjustment
-9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23
EPA
EPA / Play
14
27
EPA / Pass
11
17
EPA / Rush
27
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
16
28
Panthers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
32
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8
EPA
EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
18
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
15
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
18
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U